The other day I came across an interesting article from Daniel Lakens about how academic research grants are divided in The Netherlands (article in Dutch). In this article he refers to an interesting study (in English if you download the PDF), describing where scientist who receive prestigious individual Dutch research grants end up. What I thought was most interesting is that when they compare individuals who received a grant versus those who applied but didn't receive one, the successful applicants are 10% LESS likely to hold permanent positions SIX years after receiving a grant*. I actually see this happen around me as well: the lack of advertised tenure track positions in many scientific disciplines leads to a weird way of hiring people in the homecountry. I heard the story of someone who obtained an ERC starting grant, which is 5 years worth of money, who was then offered a 'tenure track position' of 5 years (meaning that they paid their own salary for said position, with no guarantee for what would happen after that). This type of story is exactly what is suggested by these data.
* Data are from the period between 2000-2008 so the situation may be different now.